Posted on by Numerica

The Portuguese pandemic model updated results

After some days of model development and calibration it is now time to see if our work can predict the outbreak in Portugal.

Using yesterday’s data of the Portuguese outbreak we can see if the model can keep up with the outbreak evolution.

COVID-19 model prediction results Update 1
COVID-19 model prediction results Update 1

The new infections per day report:

New infections in Portugal update 1
New infections in Portugal update 1

The results show that there is a diference from the predicted infections compared to the actual measured infections.

Model vs Measured prediction update 1
Model vs Measured prediction update 1 (Results in thousands)

From the graph we can see that the model can still predict the evolution up to now.

Close up 2 Model vs Measured prediction update 1
Close up 2 Model vs Measured prediction update 1 (Results in thousands)

From the close up image we can see a horizontal offset. We will need more time to evaluate if this will continue on probably due to mitigation and suppression activities or if it is simply a counting issue.

The way we affect our model may change from a simple decay function to something really messy to represent reality.

Model details can be seen on a previous post:

COVID-19 pandemic growth in Portuguese territory