After some days of model development and calibration it is now time to see if our work can predict the outbreak in Portugal.
Using yesterday’s data of the Portuguese outbreak we can see if the model can keep up with the outbreak evolution.
The new infections per day report:
The results show that there is a diference from the predicted infections compared to the actual measured infections.
From the graph we can see that the model can still predict the evolution up to now.
From the close up image we can see a horizontal offset. We will need more time to evaluate if this will continue on probably due to mitigation and suppression activities or if it is simply a counting issue.
The way we affect our model may change from a simple decay function to something really messy to represent reality.
Here we can see the daily infection cases in Portugal which is following an exponential.
And also observe the current pandemic infection count in Portugal:
The resulting B and G estimation curves can be seen bellow:
The model seems to fit well to the measured data at least for now.
Zooming out we get:
And yet another view:
The model predicts the following:
If the prediction is correct we should expect to have at the peek of the crises 331388 reported infection cases. Hopefully less than 2% of these will require a ventilator (6627 ventilators). My concern is that the usage time of ventilators can be greater than the 14 days estimated.
The ability to compensate the model curve based on time dependent factors is efficient to adapt the curve to experimental results.
We can see that the mitigation and suppressive actions have payed off giving a softer but longer epidemic curve.
As we get new measured data, the model precision increases for we refit and generate a new model. If the mitigation actions continue it is expected that the peek value continues to decrease, however time will increase.
My final remarks: there will be no guaranty we can lift the heavy restrictions to contain the spread. Humanity will live in fear and alert until we find a vaccine or get herd immunity.