The Portuguese pandemic model updated results

Close up 2 Model vs Measured prediction update 1

After some days of model development and calibration it is now time to see if our work can predict the outbreak in Portugal.

Using yesterday’s data of the Portuguese outbreak we can see if the model can keep up with the outbreak evolution.

COVID-19 model prediction results Update 1
COVID-19 model prediction results Update 1

 

The new infections per day report:

New infections in Portugal update 1
New infections in Portugal update 1

 

The results show that there is a diference from the predicted infections compared to the actual measured infections.

Model vs Measured prediction update 1
Model vs Measured prediction update 1 (Results in thousands)

 

From the graph we can see that the model can still predict the evolution up to now.

Close up 2 Model vs Measured prediction update 1
Close up 2 Model vs Measured prediction update 1 (Results in thousands)

 

From the close up image we can see a horizontal offset. We will need more time to evaluate if this will continue on probably due to mitigation and suppression activities or if it is simply a counting issue. 

The way we affect our model may change from a simple decay function to something really messy to represent reality.  

Model details can be seen on a previous post: 

COVID-19 pandemic growth in Portuguese territory

 

It takes a virus to make us reflect about our daily comutes. A COVID-19 reflection.

Our day to day travels

Our daily comute to work, for many of us,  is our first morning journey, however some of us travel from point A to point B during work, some of us can traverse many factories, shops and houses as part of our job. Interestingly many eventually will go to the supermarket, some daily, others weekly and others monthly depending on their personal planing, but we all need to eat! Even going beyond the supermarket, one needs to have lunch at work, where many go out of work to eat, use a canteen, eat in workplace or eat at home.

For those that eat in a canteen or go out to eat, a new norm seems to be growing with the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • Social distancing will be required for now on,
  • Maximum entrance capacity limit (no more crowded rooms),
  • Hygiene etiquete 

The places we eat or get food are places of gathering, and they seem to be the perfect places to know where any virus lurks and is transmitting.

For these reasons my recommendation is to be cautious in these zones for they will be the zones with high probability of transmission.

As we enter in community spread, active suppression in these zone will have many advantages:

  • Stop mass community transmission,
  • Segregate  positives and their relatives,
  • Get to know the transmission circuit

Since resources are limited suppression measures need to be used rationally, however if we get an idea of virus spread we can more actively direct our efforts. Since “feeding” zones are points of convergence it might well be a good starting point to statistically apply suppression methods, for any positive will give valuable information of virus infection state geographical localisation.

Our day to day travels

Our day to day travels legend
Our day to day travels